Thursday, November 24 2022

Loan Performance Report Highlights: January 2022

  • The country’s overall crime rate was 3.3% in January.
  • All states and metropolitan areas in the United States posted year-over-year declines in delinquencies.

In January 2022, 3.3% of home loans were at some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure)[1], which represented a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from January 2021 according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report. This is the lowest overall crime rate recorded in the United States since at least January 1999.

Overall Failure Rates

The share of mortgages in arrears of 30 to 59 days – considered early payment arrears – was 1.2% in January 2022, compared to 1.3% in January 2021. The share of mortgages in arrears of 60 to 89 days was 0.3% in January 2022, down from 0.5% in January 2021.

The severe delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.8% in January, down from 3.8% in January 2021. While the foreclosure rate fell at 0.2% from 0.3% in January 2021, the expiry of moratoriums in some states caused the number of foreclosures to increase from December 2021. Nevertheless, the January 2022 foreclosure rate was stable from December and remains the lowest recorded since at least 1999.

Figure 1: The current 30-day transition rate shows a sharp drop from the previous year

January 2022

Stage of delinquency: transition rate

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages move through delinquency stages, such as moving from current to 30 days overdue (Figure 1).

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-day maturity was 0.7% in January 2022, unchanged from January 2021. The low transition rates indicate that although the mortgage rate at any stage of delinquency remained high, fewer borrowers slipped into delinquency than at the peak of delinquency rates in 2020.

Figure 2: States with the highest and lowest rate of mortgages in arrears of at least 30 days

January 2022

State and Subway Delinquencies

All states recorded annual declines in their overall delinquency rates in January 2022, with the employment picture improving across the country from a year earlier. Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or longer in arrears. In January 2022, this rate was highest in Louisiana at 6.3% and lowest in Idaho at 1.6%. Idaho has seen one of the strongest job recoveries in the United States and Louisiana one of the weakest. By January 2022, Idaho had recovered all the jobs lost in March and April 2020 while Louisiana had only recovered 68% of the jobs lost.

Figure 3: Percentage of mortgages in arrears for at least 30 days for the 10 largest metropolitan areas

January 2022

Figure 3 shows the 30+ day overdue rate for January 2022 for 10 major metropolitan areas.[2] New York and Houston tied for the highest rate at 4.6%, and San Francisco had the lowest rate at 1.7%. Miami’s rate fell 4.6 percentage points from a year earlier. Apart from the top 10, all metros saw a drop in the overall delinquency rate. Nonetheless, high overall delinquency rates remain in some metro areas, including Pine Bluff, Arkansas (9.2%); Odessa, Texas (8.8%) and Vineland-Bridgeton, New Jersey (8.6%).

The country’s overall mortgage default rate hit an all-time low in January, marking the 10e consecutive month of year-over-year declines. This trend can be attributed to two well-known factors: rising house prices and a strong labor market. US home prices continue to hit new highs, posting a 20% year-over-year growth in February. Meanwhile, the latest US jobs report shows the country added an average of 562,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2022.

© 2022 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

[1] Data for this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing. The CARES Act provided forbearance for borrowers with federally backed mortgages who were economically impacted by the pandemic. Borrowers in a forbearance program who have missed a mortgage payment are included in CoreLogic’s delinquency statistics, even if the loan servicer has not flagged the loan as delinquent to credit benchmarks.

[2] The metropolitan areas used in this report are the 10 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The report uses metropolitan divisions when available.


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